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Written by: Gordon Prentice

Published: 07 April 2025

Elections Canada confirmed today that the NDP is fielding Anna Gollen as their candidate in this month’s Federal election. 

Nominations closed at 2pm this afternoon (7 April 2025). So far, only the Conservative, Liberal and NDP candidates appear on the official Elections Canada website but it will be updated with the definitive list posted on Wednesday. The People’s Party of Canada says their candidate is Andre Gagnon. The Greens are fielding David Hitchcock.

No chance

The NDP’s Anna Gollen is a paper candidate with no hope of winning.

She has no track record of doing anything in Newmarket-Aurora but I wait to see her profile once it is posted on the NDP candidates website. She has no digital footprint and her “campaign” as I tap this out is completely dark.

Mandy Price

Her election agent, Mandy Price, is also the agent for two other NDP candidates in this election, in Bowmanville-Oshawa North and Orleans. But there may be more.

In January the NDP was looking to recruit

“numerous Election Campaign Official Agents to act on behalf of local election campaigns across the country as Official Agents”. 

It may be that Mandy Price is one.

Spoiler

I wouldn’t object to Anna Gollen running for election to the Federal Parliament if she had a track record of doing things. Campaigning. Speaking out. Causing trouble. Being a nuisance.

But we don't have that here. She has been parachuted in.

Until I get to know her, Anna Gollen is just another paper candidate whose only role in this election is to act as a spoiler, increasing the chances of a Conservative win. 

Sandra Cobena and her team will be rubbing their hands with glee.

Brand Strength

In the last three Federal elections in Newmarket-Aurora the NDP vote was greater than the difference between the Conservatives and Liberals. Admittedly, in those elections the NDP had a very strong candidate, standing head and shoulders above all the other contenders. But, even with an invisible candidate this time around, the NDP could easily pick up few thousand votes just on the strength of the brand alone.

Astonishingly, there are no election debates being organised in Newmarket-Aurora in what could be one of the most consequential elections in the nation’s history. So voters have no way of getting the measure of Ms Gollen.

The boundary of Newmarket-Aurora has changed for this election taking a chunk out of the south-west corner and, with it, some Conservative support.

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Update on 9 April 2025: There appears to be no PPC or Green candidates running in this election.

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Written by: Gordon Prentice

Published: 05 April 2025

The latest projection from Éric Grenier - who does the CBC's Poll Tracker - puts the Liberals as the likely winners of the election in Newmarket-Aurora.

This is the state of play on Saturday 5 April 2025.

Grenier defines likely and unlikely this way:

Likely means the party has a high likelihood of winning the seat, though there is an outside chance (less than 5%) that another party could win.

The converse, unlikely, means the party is not in serious contention for the seat, but there is an outside chance that, with enough polling and modelling error and/or local dynamics at play, the party could pull off an upset. This is the flipside of the “Likely” rating.

The big unknown is whether the NDP candidate, Anna Gollen, will secure the 100 endorsements from local electors which she needs to get on the ballot paper. We shall know on Monday.

If it is a straight fight between the Liberals and the Conservatives there is little doubt Jennifer McLachlan will be our next MP.

That said, it ain't over 'til the fat lady sings.

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