Gordon Prentice at Large - Politics in Newmarket
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- Written by: Gordon Prentice
The collapse in voter turnout is worse than I thought.
It has shrunk alarmingly in Newmarket-Aurora and in all surrounding ridings. 
As I tap this out at 7.40pm on 23 September 2021 the counts have been completed in Newmarket-Aurora; Aurora-Oak Ridges-Richmond Hill and King-Vaughan. We are waiting for the final results from Markham-Stouffville and York-Simcoe.
But the pattern is very clear. Voter turnout is sharply down across the piece.
Astonishingly, in King-Vaughan fewer than half of electors stirred themselves to vote.
Big reductions in the number of polling places
Newmarket-Aurora's Returning Officer tells me:
"We have less than half of the voting sites than we did for the 2019 election. Specifically, we have not been given access to any schools. Previously we had 45 voting locations; this election we have 25 sites (not including single building polls)."
On Polling Day I voted in person at a Church on Main Street South, about two kilometres from where I live. There is no direct bus route from my neighbourhood to my Polling Place in Newmarket's downtown.
At the Polling Station I notice a comment box from Elections Canada, asking about my voting experience. I scribble out a note saying the polling place is too far away from my neighbourhood and this would have discouraged some people from voting.
Yesterday, I received a commendably swift reply from the Riding’s Returning Officer.
Challenging
She tells me it was an
“extraordinarily challenging election”.
I agree.
She goes on to say:
“There has been no evidence that the location of polling sites has discouraged voters.”
On that one, though, we have to disagree.
If it wasn't the savage reduction in voting sites that kept people away from voting, what was it?
The pandemic? Disaffection? Couldn't be bothered?
The table below shoes the voter turnout in Newmarket-Aurora and in all adjacent ridings, comparing the 2019 and 2021 Federal Elections.
Updated on 25 September 2021. All counts have now been completed. The reported turnouts are as shown below.
And the Toronto Star's editorial on low turnouts
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- Written by: Gordon Prentice
The counting of the mail-in ballots is taking place as I tap this out.
The last time I checked ( September 22, 16:44 ) 35% of the Newmarket-Aurora so-called "special ballots" had been counted.
It looks as if the counting will extend into tomorrow, Thursday, 23 September 2021.
Preliminary figures
Elections Canada gave preliminary figures for mail-in ballots at 11.59pm on 20 September 2021.
I pick out my own riding, Newmarket-Aurora, and, for comparison, Aurora-Oak Ridges-Richmond Hill which is next door. The figures are shown in the table below.
What do I take from this?
The mail-ins have always been a small percentage of the total vote. But in this election the mail-ins for Newmarket-Aurora more than doubled (4,656) compared with the Federal Election in 2019 (2,053).
Will the mail-ins change the provisional result in Newmarket-Aurora or Aurora-Oak Ridges-Richmond Hill?
I very much doubt it.
The Liberals polled well in the mail-ins in 2019 and in 2015 in Newmarket-Aurora.
They took 45% of the mail-in vote in 2019 and 47.5% in 2015.
The Conservatives took 29.8% and 35.3% respectively.
The NDP 13.6% and 12.2%. And the Greens 7.4% and 2%.
There are, of course, wild cards in this election. The PPC is one. But, if anything, a high PPC vote will harm the Conservatives.
76.9% of those receiving a ballot kit for Newmarket-Aurora actually voted. For Aurora, 72.2%
Note: figures are as reported by Elections Canada at 13.50 on 22 September 2021
- Details
- Written by: Gordon Prentice
The big story of this unnecessary pandemic election is the collapse in voter turnout.
In the last Federal Election in 2019 the turnout in Newmarket-Aurora was a fraction over 67%, right on the national average.
Yesterday in Newmarket-Aurora the turnout was 56%.
If the national turnout mirrors this, the turnout in yesterday's election will have been the lowest in the nation's history. The previous lowest was 58.8% in October 2008. (The highest was 79.4% in March 1958)
The savage reductions in the number of polling stations - caused by the Covid restrictions - will have played a part.
How did the vote change between 2019 and 2021?
The preliminary results from Elections Canada on election night show the percentage share of the vote for the Liberals in Newmarket-Aurora barely moved from 2019.
The Conservatives and the NDP both saw increases in their vote share.
The Green vote shrank alarmingly, a verdict on the recent turmoil within the Party.
The People's Party of Canada now moves into fourth place.
But mail-in ballots have yet to be counted. You can check how things are going, here on the Elections Canada site.
Clearly the pundits and commentators do not believe the mail-in ballots are going to change the overall picture.
Plus ça change, plus c'est la même chose
Nationally, the 2021 Federal Election has produced a picture uncannily like the 2019 result.
The Conservatives won the popular vote (as they did in 2019) but could not translate this into seats won.
This is one of the key characteristics of First Past the Post.
It is not proportional. Doesn't pretend to be.
It is designed to deliver strong, stable Governments - but that can be difficult where there is a multiplicity of Parties.
The Liberals do not have a majority and will have to govern with the consent or acquiescence of other Parties.
We shall see soon enough where this takes us.
Update on 22 September 2021: From CTV - Several Ridings still too Close to Call
And from the Globe and Mail: Voter Turnout near historic lows (Note: G&M bar chart shows 44.6% turnout in 1898 but this was in a referendum on prohibition, not a Federal Election)
Update on 24 September 2021: Final Results confirm collapse in Turnout
Correction 26 September 2021. The lowest turnout was 58.8% in Stephen Harper's Federal Election on 14 October 2008. Not 60.9% in June 2004 (as previously shown).
From the CBC at 1pm on 21 September 2021
